Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 9.429642 11.079886 12.885444 15.001214 17.405835 20.046927 23.160189
2025-01-26 7.264752 9.607997 12.428123 16.040906 20.511791 25.826571 32.582234
2025-02-02 5.762114 8.438916 11.931333 16.746061 23.124665 31.189984 42.048529
2025-02-09 4.722181 7.565194 11.543107 17.378246 25.556684 36.427567 51.747734
2025-02-16 3.788926 6.605638 10.811138 17.338148 26.957377 40.315328 59.897614
2025-02-23 2.993258 5.665298 9.910838 16.858556 27.583253 43.080115 66.615065
2025-03-02 2.345764 4.815018 8.983341 16.158993 27.728267 45.072236 72.277879
2025-03-09 1.947416 4.304776 8.507419 16.073887 28.745095 48.352323 79.966464
2025-03-16 1.598490 3.806471 7.961632 15.777008 29.351491 50.998361 86.817352
2025-03-23 1.455647 3.683093 8.061550 16.587798 31.826786 56.702352 98.692881
2025-03-30 1.261011 3.407421 7.828230 16.758802 33.205158 60.709319 108.099080
2025-04-06 1.077544 3.114064 7.511051 16.724359 34.198830 64.120967 116.711720
2025-04-13 0.918795 2.848857 7.224189 16.740531 35.334095 67.932945 126.368935
2025-04-20 0.876908 2.867159 7.545952 18.005795 38.890555 76.137195 143.858027
2025-04-27 0.805094 2.790484 7.646146 18.827261 41.674495 83.165493 159.739365
2025-05-04 0.733936 2.697947 7.694543 19.540773 44.300584 90.062125 175.745292
2025-05-11 0.629610 2.480719 7.411614 19.501588 45.431228 94.318572 187.354778
2025-05-18 0.517923 2.206045 6.937657 18.973075 45.516167 96.640716 195.636042
2025-05-25 0.415269 1.924592 6.391142 18.199779 45.009566 97.797961 201.846981
2025-06-01 0.354618 1.767675 6.146877 18.105784 45.918613 101.684466 213.212124
2025-06-08 0.295752 1.595115 5.825085 17.777255 46.281377 104.516692 222.739779
2025-06-15 0.279745 1.587984 5.983336 18.674462 49.423015 112.986083 243.233577
2025-06-22 0.246738 1.497323 5.873503 18.863611 50.974218 118.344688 258.022032